My 2017 Economic Forecast

Opening slide

That leaves Trump with economic advisers who are 100% batshit crazy protectionists. Kudlow would have been a voice of sanity.

[Update January 22 with news about the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers]

Apparently Larry Kudlow is out. From the linked article →

The good news is that Kevin Hassett is on the short list.  He’s currently

…director of research for domestic policy for the American Enterprise Institute, is a tax expert with a Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania. His presence in the administration would address the concern of some economists, including former Republican and Democratic chairmen of the panel, that Trump lacked academic economists on his team. Hassett has published several articles [four listed on his cv] in the peer-reviewed American Economic Review.

This guy is the real deal, albeit with a strong focus on taxes and tax policy.  I was unable to find anything about his views on international trade, but he’s a respectable economist — the first, so far, in the current administration.  You can find out more about him via his page on the AEI website.

[Updated January 20 to add the video of my talk.]

On January 9 I had the privilege of speaking with the Hayward Rotary Club on the economic outlook for 2017.  I have a video of my presentation, but it will take me some time to get it online.  For now you can click here for a pdf version of my Powerpoint slides.  As always, feel free to leave comments, opinions, or just chime in with your forecast.