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Category Archives: Current issues

First Quarter GDP

Posted on April 30, 2023 by Tony Lima

First quarter growth was driven by Federal government hiring. Higher government cost was a major contributor to the ongoing inflation. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, Economic Data, Economic policy | Tagged advance estimate, economic growth, featured, first quarter, gdp, inflation

Rep. Kevin Kiley on AB5 and the PRO Act

Posted on April 20, 2023 by Tony Lima

Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA) talks about the damage AB5 has done to California.  He warns about the PRO Act’s potential to wreck the US economy. Continue Reading →

Posted in California Economy, Current issues | Tagged AB5, featured, independent contractors, Kiley, PRO act

The Twitter Files

Posted on April 14, 2023 by Tony Lima

This article features a downloadable zip file of 19 of the 20 Twitter files threads. Matt Taibbi did most of the heavy lifting. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, The Intersection of Economics and Technology | Tagged featured, Taibbi, twitter, twitter files

Silicon Valley Bank Article Index

Posted on March 30, 2023 by Tony Lima

This is my Silicon Valley Bank article index, a one-stop shop for all things SVB including links to my articles. I will update this as I add new stuff. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues | Tagged featured, Silicon Valley Bank, SVB
FDIC transaction categories Defining "Bailout" to Understand Silicon Valley Bank

Defining “Bailout” to Understand Silicon Valley Bank

Posted on March 28, 2023 by Tony Lima

Reading FDIC documentation, I noticed the agency doesn’t use “bailout.”  I’ll try to define “bailout” to understand Silicon Valley Bank. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues | Tagged bailout, featured, purchase and assumption, Silicon Valley Bank, Sprague, SVB

Silicon Valley Bank and the Regulators

Posted on March 21, 2023 by Tony Lima

One question that has come up is whether this was a failure of regulation.  Stanford Prof. John Cochrane is a proponent of this idea. I don’t find his arguments persuasive. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, Economic policy | Tagged bank regulation, Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, DFPI, FDIC, featured, federal reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, SVB
Silicon Valley Bank

Silicon Valley Bank

Posted on March 15, 2023 by Tony Lima

On March 10, Silicon Valley Bank was closed by the FDIC.  The main cause was an incompetent management team that wasn’t interested in banking. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, Economic policy | Tagged ChiGrl, FDIC, featured, federal reserve, Genevieve Rock Decter, Greg Becker, Silicon Valley Bank, SVB, Treasury
Greenwash Biden Administration Trying to Force ESG Rules on Fiduciaries

Biden Administration Trying to Force ESG Rules on Fiduciaries

Posted on March 9, 2023 by Tony Lima

Biden wants to force ESG rules on fiduciaries. If markets are efficient, portfolios that maximize returns must outperform all others, Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, Economic policy | Tagged ESG, featured, fiduciary

Baby Formula Shortage

Posted on March 8, 2023 by Tony Lima

There is a baby formula shortage in the U.S. today.  Relaxing U.S. restrictions on imports would help. Congress is incapable of doing that. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, Economic policy | Tagged baby formula, Cato Institute, featured, Lincicome, shortage
investment Fourth quarter GDP

Fourth Quarter GDP

Posted on February 6, 2023 by Tony Lima

GDP growth of 2.9% sounds pretty good. But there is underlying weakness in the economy. I estimate a 60% chance of a recession in 2023. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, Economic Data | Tagged featured, gdp, goods, inventory cycle, recession, services

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Economist Thoughts

TARIFF, n. A scale of taxes on imports, designed to protect the domestic producer against the greed of his customers. — Ambrose Bierce

“Everybody knows that once something is declared a right, the laws of supply and demand are automatically repealed.” – Ben Shapiro, podcast, September 4, 2018

Why I will not use government data from now on

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    • Tired: Market Forces WIRED: Malarkey Forces May 24, 2023
      Tired: Market Forces WIRED: Malarkey Forces. That's the title on the esteemed Scott Lincicome's (@ScottLincicome) latest Twitter rant. Continue Reading →
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    • Volcanos, Weather, and the Economy May 23, 2023
      I think volcanos gave California rain and cold weather.  But -- as Dr. McCoy would say -- "Dammit, Jim, I'm an economist not a meteorologist." Continue Reading →
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    • Innovation in the Hearing Aid Market May 20, 2023
      Innovation has leaped in hearing aids. FDA deregulation in 2022 could cause the largest market price cuts since airline deregulation in 1980. Continue Reading →
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      Breakfast can be a family event but the (literal) nanny state extends its reach. Governments act like drug dealers giving out free samples. Continue Reading →
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