Fourth Quarter GDP
GDP growth of 2.9% sounds pretty good. But there is underlying weakness in the economy. I estimate a 60% chance of a recession in 2023. Continue Reading →
Tag Archives: recession
Does a Recession Really Have To Have 2 Consecutive Quarters of Negative GDP Growth?
Does a recession really have to have 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth? No. The Business Cycles Dating Committee makes this call. Continue Reading →
Casey Mulligan on the Coming Recession.
Casey Mulligan on the coming recession. Data table plus link to his full article. Gloomy outlook for next year, worse for the following four. Continue Reading →
What Really Happened in the First Quarter
The U.S. economy is in for a rough time in 2014. In large part this has been caused by the implementation of Obamacare, the Dodd-Frank financial reform act, and the flood of new regulations emanating from a plethora of U.S. government agencies. I’ll just mention the de facto war on coal being waged by the EPA and the broad use of “disparate impact analysis” in the Department of Labor. Continue Reading →
What Is A Recession?
Let me translate. Paraphrasing Humpty Dumpty’s conversation with Alice, ‘ “When I use the word recession,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”
“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”
“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master— that’s all.” ‘
(from Through the Looking Glass, and What Alice Found There, Lewis Carroll, 1871, ch. 6) Continue Reading →
Welcome to the Party, Ken Rogoff
“We have never left the recession by any reasonable measure,” Rogoff said. Continue Reading →
Nine Point Eight! Are You Convinced Yet?
“President Obama had scheduled a speech about the economy this morning, but instead he went to Afghanistan.”[1] No wonder. If I was president I wouldn’t want to be in the country today either.
Today the November labor market report was released. The, um, highlight was the unemployment rate: 9.8%. Corporate profits are soaring and the economy is growing, albeit slowly. So where are the jobs? Continue Reading →