Posts Tagged unemployment numbers
Suspicious Data From the BLS
Posted by TonyLima in Using economic data on December 3, 2011
While sifting through the numbers from the November employment report,[1] I ran across what appears to be suspicious data from the BLS. At the bottom of Table A-11 I found this:
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HOUSEHOLD DATA |
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Table A-11. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment |
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[Numbers in thousands] |
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Reason |
Not seasonally adjusted |
Seasonally adjusted |
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Nov. |
Oct. |
Nov. |
Nov. |
Oct. |
Nov. |
|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2011 |
2010 |
2011 |
2011 |
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UNEMPLOYED AS A PERCENT OF THE |
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CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE |
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Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs |
5.8 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
6.2 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
|
Job leavers |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
|
Reentrants |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
|
New entrants |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. Accessed December 2, 2011.
Take a close look at those last three rows. The numbers are virtually identical. What’s especially troubling is that the seasonally adjusted figures are the same as those that are not seasonally adjusted. I would expect a discrepancy in November due to seasonal holiday hiring.
I have no idea whether this is important or even real. And, yes, I realize the numbers are small relative to the job losers and persons completing temporary jobs. But this leads me to a bit more doubt about the veracity of the BLS numbers.
Forecast: March Unemployment Rate
Posted by TonyLima in The state of the economy on April 1, 2010
The March unemployment numbers will be released tomorrow. The consensus forecast is for the unemployment rate to remain at 9.7%. My instincts tell me this is too low. I’m forecasting 9.8%, possibly 9.9%.
Update April 2: the actual rate stayed at 9.7%. Despite the gushing from the media about the improved job numbers, the one factor that seems to have kept the unemployment rate from rising was the 40,000 census workers hired last month. I admit that I forgot about that when making my forecast. But I’ll add that the economy will never recover until private industry job creation begins again. (See entry below about the impact of the health care bill on the economy.)
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