The State of American Education: Math

Once again, we return to our old pal, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP, also called The Nation’s Report Card). Every few years, these folks conduct a series of nationwide testing of grades 4, 8, and 12. Math and reading are the two subjects surveyed most frequently (usually every two or three years). From their data, we can assess the state of American education. This time, we’ll also look at trends. TL;DR: the trend in both subjects is steadily downward since 2013.

This is a two-part article. Here I’ll look at math. The next post will cover reading.

I’ll look at four states (selected whimsically) and the national average. California, Florida, Texas, and Massachusetts are my picks. The national average is across 53 entities: 50 states plus Puerto Rico, the District of Columbia, and DoDEA. I’ll explain the last item soon.

The Data Source

As noted above, my data is from the NAEP. The most recent year is 2024. Surveys are done every two or three years. The data extends back to 1990, but there are many states that did not report for that year as well as 1992, 1996, and 2000. The first year in which there is complete data is 2003.

I always pick 8^th grade. That seems to have the largest sample. And those students have been in school long enough to make their test results meaningful.

The data is at state level, but the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico are also included. In addition, there is the peculiar segment DoDEA. That is the Department of Defense Education Activity (DoDEA), a federally operated nonpublic school system responsible for educating children of military families.

So let’s dive in.

Mathematics

Here’s the breakdown.

Fig01 Math, 2024 only, 8th Grade, All States (click for larger image)

Massachusetts is the leader among actual states for 2024. This is not surprising and quite common. The Bay State is home to many top universities, including M.I.T., Harvard, Wellesley, Smith, and Mt. Holyoke. There are a host of others: Boston University, Amherst, Tufts, Wheaton, … the list could go on for quite a while. Each has a faculty. The faculty have kids. Not surprisingly, the parents demand a high-quality education.

But the number one university is DoDEA, the Department of Defense education system. This is also not surprising. Almost by definition, DoDEA employees are focused and disciplined. Their kids undoubtedly either inherit this feature or have it imposed on them by parents.

There are some surprises on this list. New Jersey, at number six, is higher than I expected. Oregon and Florida (41, 42) are lower. I leave it to interested readers to study these results in detail.

This year, I extracted data as a time series. NAEP reported math results for 1990, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2022, and 2024. The frequency is every two or three years. As mentioned earlier, data before 2003 is sparse. Here’s what the time series for the national average looks like:

Fig02 Math, National, 8th Grade (click for larger image)

I was surprised to see the decline in math scores began in 2013 when they peaked at 285. On the other hand, the sharp drop in 2020 (COVID) was expected. I did not predict the ongoing decline through 2024. But this may not be surprising. Eighth graders in 2024 were in the fourth grade when COVID hit. My guess is that we will see continued low scores for a few more years as the effects of the 2020 pandemic continue to work through the K-12 system.

According to Google AI, 2013 saw several events of significance:

• the George Zimmerman trial,
• the 17-day federal government shutdown,
• and Edward Snowden’s leaking classified government documents describing a significant U.S. government surveillance program.

Whether any or all of those was a significant contributor to the decline in math scores remains an open question. But I would not be surprised to learn that the Zimmerman and Snowden affairs were distractions.

Selected State Results

I arbitrarily picked California, Florida, Massachusetts, and Texas. If you’re curious about other states, download my Excel workbooks for math. (Clicking the link automatically downloads the file.)

Here’s a quick comparison of the average math scores from 2003 through 2024.

Fig03 Math, State Averages 2003-2024, 8th Grade (click for larger image)

Now let’s look at the four states.

California

Fig04 Math, California, 8th Grade (click for larger image)

The Golden State ranked dead last in math from 1996 to 2022. The state barely edged out Florida in 1992 and 2024.

But in one sense, my home state did somewhat better than the three other states in the post-2013 decline. The state’s math average stayed about the same from 2013 to 2019, beginning to decrease only in 2022. As noted above, this is damning with faint praise. California’s average score was lower than the other three states and the national average,.

Florida

The Sunshine State fared slightly better than its west coast competitor in orange production. The average math score was 276, four points above California. But both are below the national average of 280.

Fig05 Math, Florida, 8th Grade (click for larger image)

The state took a nosedive in 2015. A possible cause was the introduction of the Florida Standards Assessments (FSA). It was botched and undoubtably was a major distraction. From Google AI:

Testing and Accountability:

• Florida Standards Assessments (FSA): The initial implementation of the Florida Standards Assessments (FSA), replacing the Common Core-based PARCC test, was plagued by technological glitches, causing frustration among superintendents, teachers, and students.
• “Incomplete” School Grades: 118 schools received “Incomplete” grades due to failure to meet the 95% student participation rate on the FSA, possibly due to opting out or testing issues.
• Superintendent “No Confidence” Declaration: In September 2015, Florida school superintendents expressed a loss of confidence in the state’s accountability system, which heavily relied on FSA scores, and called for a suspension and review of the system.
• Lawsuit Challenges Testing Requirements: A lawsuit was filed in August 2016, focusing on events in the 2015-2016 school year, challenging the requirement for students to take standardized tests before being promoted to fourth grade. The lawsuit highlighted issues with students being held back due to test scores despite potentially strong academic performance, and the state’s changing policies on accepting student portfolios or report cards. 

Texas

The Lone Star State scored 282, slightly above the national average of 280.

Fig06 Math, Texas, 8th Grade (click for larger image)

As you’ll see later, the state was below the national average in 1992 and 1996. Between 2000 and 2017, Texas exceeded the average, only to fall back below starting in 2019. Curiously, the decline in the average score began in 2011, earlier than any of the other three states. But this time, Google AI came up with a plausible explanation: serious cuts in the state’s education budget:

Details of the budget cuts:

• The Texas Legislature, facing a projected budget shortfall, reduced public school funding by $5.4 billion.
• This cut included a $1.4 billion programmatic cut and a $4 billion cut to school finance formulas.
• These cuts had various negative effects, including staffing cuts and increased class sizes.
• Over 600 school districts sued the state following the cuts, arguing that the system was underfunded and had become an unconstitutional statewide property tax. 

Consequences of the cuts:

• Decreased funding per student: Elementary schools saw an average of $65 less spent on instructional programs per student, middle schools $268 less, and high schools $428 less in 2016 compared to 2008.
• Reduced course offerings.
• Furloughs and layoffs of educators.
• Increased class sizes: The number of classes exceeding the 22-student limit grew significantly after the cuts.
• Impact on student achievement: Some argued that the funding cuts would negatively impact student achievement and the ability to meet exit-level assessments. 

No wonder scores began falling.

Massachusetts

The clear leader of the four states.  In fact, Massachusetts ranked first or second in math in the entire 53 entity database for every survey year starting in 2005.

Fig07 Math, Massachusetts, 8th Grade (click for larger image)

But, like two other states, scores began to decline in 2013. This also reduced the Bay State’s lead over both the national average and Texas.

Comparison

Here’s the comparison of the time path of scores in each state as well as the national average:

Fig08 Math, Comparison, 8th Grade (click for larger image)

Conclusion

Massachusetts has ranked first in math on every test from 2003 to 2019.  In 2022 and 2024 DoDEA pushed it into second place. (My Excel workbook includes a separate worksheet for each year with data sorted by that year’s scores.) It’s tempting to say other states should just do what Massachusetts does. As noted earlier, that would be very difficult. Developing a stable of world-class universities is not an available strategy. My advice is straightforward:

1. Figure out how to eliminate teacher unions. If that can’t be done, you might as well quit. But read on – there may be some instructors who will buy into this program.
2. Close all the teacher education schools in state colleges. Give the money to school districts with the express condition that it goes to increasing teacher pay with a focus on newly-hired faculty.
3. Insist that school districts hire teachers proficient in the subject they are teaching. This probably means those in some fields (math, hard sciences) will be paid more than others.
4. Eliminate all traces of DEI throughout the school system.
5. Refocus on teaching academic subjects.
6. Stress teacher professionalism. Someone standing in front of a class should not be there to make friends.