Fourth Quarter GDP
GDP growth of 2.9% sounds pretty good. But there is underlying weakness in the economy. I estimate a 60% chance of a recession in 2023. Continue Reading →
Category Archives: Economic Data
COVID and Kids Part 2
COVID and kids part because the CDC has once again produced a junk study. Even worse, after two revisions they still don’t have it right. Continue Reading →
The U.S. Washboard Monopoly
Inspired by a front-page article in the Wall Street Journal, I investigated this outrage. The U.S. washboard monopoly is a national disgrace. Continue Reading →
Everybody Talks About the Weather
Everybody talks about the weather, so why should I be any different? I look at rainfall in the Bay Area this season. Results are encouraging. Continue Reading →
Who’s Helping Ukraine?
Who’s helping Ukraine? Using data from the Ukraine Support Tracker, I estimate aid from the U.S., the rest of the world, and non-US NATO. Continue Reading →
Two New Housing Price Indexes
Two new housing price indexes from BLS and the Cleveland Fed: New Tenant Repeat Rent Index (NTRRI) and All Tenant Repeat Rent Index (ATRRI), Continue Reading →
Marginal and Average Explains Inflation Changes
The annualized month-to-month inflation (AMM) and the year over year rate (YOY) are the marginal and average. AMM > YOY, YOY should rise. Continue Reading →
RTX and Third Quarter GDP
y hypothesis was that U.S. aid to Ukraine was recycled as purchases of U.S. weapons. This is part 2 of my discussion of third quarter GDP. Continue Reading →
Third Quarter GDP
There’s a good chance that a lot of the increase in third quarter GDP was caused by U.S. government spending, specifically foreign aid. Continue Reading →
Electricity in California
This is the good, the bad, and the ugly of electricity in California. My case study is a typical day from the recent heat wave. Continue Reading →