Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan Will Win in a Landslide

My methodology is simple: read all the polls, rip them up and throw them away. Read all the editorial endorsements, tear them up and throw them away. Listen to my gut instead. Yeah, I know it’s not scientific, but most polls have a “refuse to answer” rate around 90%. That means their numbers are based on a sample that is far from random. Continue Reading →

Paul Ryan’s Budget Proposal

So, Rep. Ryan, I ask a simple question: what do you propose to do about municipal bond interest? If that interest remains tax exempt, your proposal will cause wealth to flood into the muni market, driving interest rates being paid by state and local governments down sharply. The portfolio shift will be caused by — what else? — wealthy people trying to escape taxes. Continue Reading →

NY-26: Media Innumeracy Strikes Again

Perennial candidate Jack Davis ran for the same seat in the previous three elections, each time as a Democrat. This time he proclaimed himself the tea party candidate and managed to siphon 9% of the vote away from Ms. Corwin. Without his presence in the race (or if he had followed form and run as a Democrat), the Republican Corwin would have won going away. And there would be no story for the mainstream media. I’m quite sure they wouldn’t have trumpeted a Corwin victory as a win for Rep. Ryan’s reform proposal. Continue Reading →