Measuring Expected Inflation
Current inflation news including calculating expected inflation, the yield curve, and the term structure of expected inflation. Continue Reading →
Category Archives: The state of the economy
Is There Inflation in Our Future?
All signs point to higher inflation starting soon. Current and planned economic policies will cause inflation to move even higher after 2022. Continue Reading →
A Warning From Megan McArdle About Multi-Level Marketing
Businesses are failing rapidly. If you’re tempted to sign up for schemes that advertise, “Work from home, make a zillion dollars,” read this. Continue Reading →
Casey Mulligan on School Reopening
He recently published a Twitter thread about school reopening. Read carefully. Then ask yourself if the camp should have closed the sailing school at all. Continue Reading →
The Myth of Donor States
So no more about “donor states.” When any state gives up national defense they can talk about being a donor state. Until then they can sit down and shut up Continue Reading →
Why US GDP Fell By 4.8 Percent in 2020 Q1
US GDP decreased 4.8 percent in 2020:I. Personal consumption spending fell by 7.78% compared to the previous quarter with spending on services decreasing a whopping 10.63%. Continue Reading →
Testing Does Not Confer Immunity
Testing does not confer immunity. Test negative today, you might be infected tomorrow. False positives mean some people who go back to work will die. Continue Reading →
Nicole Kaeding Tells You Why Your Tax Refund is Smaller Than Usual This Year
Screaming headlines have appeared all over the mainstream media. Here’s the Washington Post: A quick search on the Post website includes two articles from Bloomberg: Nicole Kaeding is Director of Continue Reading →
Poll for Dems in February 2015 Trashes the State of the Economy
For the better part of six years I (and others) have been explaining that the economy is not in very good shape. Now we have a vast quantity of empirical evidence supporting our argument. Continue Reading →
The Average Duration of Unemployment
The average duration of unemployment in 2014 is still higher than it was in 2010. I’ve written a great deal over the years about the decrease in the labor force participation rate and its implications for the U.S. economy. But, frankly, this took me by surprise. Anyone who still thinks the U.S. economic “recovery” is real should check their privilege. Continue Reading →