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Category Archives: The state of the economy

RTX and Third Quarter GDP

RTX and Third Quarter GDP

Posted on December 1, 2022 by Tony Lima

y hypothesis was that U.S. aid to Ukraine was recycled as purchases of U.S. weapons.  This is part 2 of my discussion of third quarter GDP. Continue Reading →

Posted in Economic Data, The state of the economy | Tagged featured, raytheon, raytheon missiles & space, rtx, third quarter gdp
Third quarter GDP

Third Quarter GDP

Posted on October 27, 2022 by Tony Lima

There’s a good chance that a lot of the increase in third quarter GDP was caused by U.S. government spending, specifically foreign aid. Continue Reading →

Posted in Economic Data, The state of the economy | Tagged adding up gdp, advance estimate, featured, gdp, government spending, inventory change, third quarter, Ukraine
Inflation expectations term structure measuring expected inflation

Measuring Expected Inflation

Posted on June 7, 2021 by Tony Lima

Current inflation news including calculating expected inflation, the yield curve, and the term structure of expected inflation. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, The state of the economy | Tagged featured, inflation, term structure, term structure of expected inflation, yield curve
Is There Inflation In Our Future Economic Forecasts

Is There Inflation in Our Future?

Posted on March 24, 2021 by Tony Lima

All signs point to higher inflation starting soon. Current and planned economic policies will cause inflation to move even higher after 2022. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, The state of the economy | Tagged economic forecast, featured, inflation

A Warning From Megan McArdle About Multi-Level Marketing

Posted on August 18, 2020 by Tony Lima

Businesses are failing rapidly.  If you’re tempted to sign up for schemes that advertise, “Work from home, make a zillion dollars,” read this. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, The state of the economy | Tagged featured, McArdle, multi-level marketing, Ponzi, work from home
Casey Mulligan

Casey Mulligan on School Reopening

Posted on July 26, 2020 by Tony Lima

He recently published a Twitter thread about school reopening.  Read carefully.  Then ask yourself if the camp should have closed the sailing school at all. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, The state of the economy | Tagged Casey Mulligan, covid, featured, school reopening
US GDP by state featured The Myth of Donor States

The Myth of Donor States

Posted on May 10, 2020 by Tony Lima

So no more about “donor states.” When any state gives up national defense they can talk about being a donor state. Until then they can sit down and shut up Continue Reading →

Posted in Economic policy, The state of the economy | Tagged donor states, featured, national defense, public goods
Why US GDP Fell By 4.8 Percent in 2020 Q1

Why US GDP Fell By 4.8 Percent in 2020 Q1

Posted on May 2, 2020 by Tony Lima

US GDP decreased 4.8 percent in 2020:I. Personal consumption spending fell by 7.78% compared to the previous quarter with spending on services decreasing a whopping 10.63%. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, The state of the economy | Tagged COVID-19, featured, gdp, US economy
A screenshot of text Description automatically generated

Testing Does Not Confer Immunity

Posted on April 18, 2020 by Tony Lima

Testing does not confer immunity. Test negative today, you might be infected tomorrow. False positives mean some people who go back to work will die. Continue Reading →

Posted in Current issues, The state of the economy | Tagged COVID-19.testing, featured, immunity
Nicole Kaeding Ms. Kaeding Tells You Why Your Tax Refund is Smaller Than Usual This Year

Nicole Kaeding Tells You Why Your Tax Refund is Smaller Than Usual This Year

Posted on February 11, 2019 by Tony Lima

Screaming headlines have appeared all over the mainstream media. Here’s the Washington Post: A quick search on the Post website includes two articles from Bloomberg: Nicole Kaeding is Director of Continue Reading →

Posted in Media Stupidity, The state of the economy | Tagged featured, Kaeding, tax refund

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Our Favorite Economist Tony Lima

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Economist Thoughts

TARIFF, n. A scale of taxes on imports, designed to protect the domestic producer against the greed of his customers. — Ambrose Bierce

“Everybody knows that once something is declared a right, the laws of supply and demand are automatically repealed.” – Ben Shapiro, podcast, September 4, 2018

Why I will not use government data from now on

Last Tweets

  • Join @carldemaio and sign the petition to Stop the Natural Gas Ban! Sign the petition here: https://t.co/n4ltSCzl2V, 16 hours ago
  • RT @missmulrooney: My 3-year-old said she wished we had a pet. I reminded her we have a dog and wow the genuine surprise on her face a… https://t.co/uEL0wMlebB, 18 hours ago
  • RT @zerohedge: Pentagon ‘did not detect’ previous Chinese spy balloons: US general Glen VanHerck, the head of U.S. Northern Comman… https://t.co/29p8PNDOq6, Feb 7
  • Fourth quarter GDP says we’re heading for a recession. Buckle up for a bumpy ride through the deep weeds of GDP num… https://t.co/eHawhPhH76, Feb 7
  • RT @bloodless_coup: 🔴 I regret to inform you the cowardly, rudderless, stupid party is being cowardly, rudderless and stupid again. 🙄 https://t.co/lfuM9iks6m, Feb 6

Websites I Like and Use

  • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
  • Political Calculations
  • California Pension Tracker
  • Dan Mitchell's Analysis of Tax Issues

My Other Blogs

  • My musings about technology and strategy
  • California Wine Fan
  • Virginia Wine Fan
  • Oregon Wine Fan

GonzoEcon History

Recent Posts

  • Fourth Quarter GDP
  • COVID and Kids Part 2
  • The U.S. Washboard Monopoly
  • Repeal the Jones Act
  • Everybody Talks About the Weather

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  • Fourth Quarter GDP February 7, 2023
    GDP growth of 2.9% sounds pretty good. But there is underlying weakness in the economy. I estimate a 60% chance of a recession in 2023. Continue Reading →
    Tony Lima
  • COVID and Kids Part 2 January 31, 2023
    COVID and kids part because the CDC has once again produced a junk study.  Even worse, after two revisions they still don't have it right.  Continue Reading →
    Tony Lima
  • The U.S. Washboard Monopoly January 28, 2023
    Inspired by a front-page article in the Wall Street Journal, I investigated this outrage.  The U.S. washboard monopoly is a national disgrace. Continue Reading →
    Tony Lima
  • Repeal the Jones Act January 26, 2023
    Puerto Rick is a hurricane magnet. After the last one, power was out for 928,000 residents. The island has many diesel power generators. A tanker full of diesel was moored off the coast. But it wasn’t allowed to dock. Why? The Jones Act. Continue Reading →
    Tony Lima
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