The November CPI was up 0.1% compared to September. That’s a 1.2% annual rate. Speculation ran rampant, especially when the November unemployment rate came in at 4.6%, up from 4.4% in September. Those two facts explain the Fed’s decision to cut the target Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3 1/2 to 3 3/4 percent.
Where’s October?
But, wait — where’s October? The answer is on the BLS website:
BLS handling of missing data
BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data for some surveys due to a lapse in appropriations, resulting in missing data values where data could not be retroactively collected. Missing data for October 2025 may be represented differently across BLS products but will be indicated with a footnote. In the BLS Public Data API and the database, a dash will represent a missing data value, and associated net and percent changes will not be visible.
For some programs, products with missing data may be curtailed. For example, the CPI latest numbers page will be temporarily disabled, and the CPI inflation calculator will not calculate output using October 2025 data.
Oh, yeah, that government shutdown. There was no data for October. The BLS statement is 100% accurate. But I don’t work for them. So here’s what I did.
My Process
Calculate this total:
Fig01 CPI calculation
Dividing by 2 roughly takes account of the missing month. That calculation yields my results: the October CPI (calculated) is 324.7 resulting in a 0.1% month-over-month and a 1.2% annual rate. Interestingly enough, that’s also the rate of increase in November. Here’s what the data looks like:
Fig02 CPI monthly at annual rates 2021 to 2025
Including the calculated value for October,
Fig03 CPI calculation including calculated October value
The BLS says I shouldn’t do this. I agree in principle. But I learned long ago you gotta work with what you have.
Fed Policy
This is directly related to monetary policy. A decrease in inflation like the one shown above could justify a cut in interest rates. In fact, here’s what the FOMC did at their December 2025 meeting:
In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
Additional Support For the Rate Cut
Labor market data also pointed to a rate cut. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4,6% in November, up from 4.4% in September. I could interpolate to calculate October, but in this case I don’t need Excel to arrive at 4.5%.
Fig04 Unemployment Rate
Combine a slightly weakening labor market with low inflation and the rate cut might be justified. I opposed a cut in November and still have my doubts. But I can’t accuse the Fed of ignoring the data. (I’ll add that the Fed has access to a whole bunch of data the public can’t see.)
