U.S. Retail Sales: Moving Markets by Ignoring Error Margins

“Retail sales up 0.3% in February” is what you read in the headlines. In response, U.S. stock markets moved higher. … The press release clearly states the margin of error is ±0.5%. In other words, the 0.3% estimate is meaningless. All we know with any confidence is that the actual growth rate is likely between –0.2% and +0.8%. Don’t bet the ranch on this estimate. Continue Reading →