The third estimate was released a few weeks ago. Real GDP growth increased from the first estimate’s 1.1 percent to 2.0 percent Continue Reading →
First quarter growth was driven by Federal government hiring. Higher government cost was a major contributor to the ongoing inflation. Continue Reading →
GDP growth of 2.9% sounds pretty good. But there is underlying weakness in the economy. I estimate a 60% chance of a recession in 2023. Continue Reading →
There’s a good chance that a lot of the increase in third quarter GDP was caused by U.S. government spending, specifically foreign aid. Continue Reading →
US GDP decreased 4.8 percent in 2020:I. Personal consumption spending fell by 7.78% compared to the previous quarter with spending on services decreasing a whopping 10.63%. Continue Reading →
The U.S. economy is still sick. It will not be cured until (if and when) the current regulatory onslaught emanating from Washington, D.C. is not just slowed, but rolled back. The U.S. needs business climate change. Continue Reading →
While subprime vehicle loans contributed to third quarter growth, the total contribution was minor. Far more concerning is the continuing growth of inventories and the apparent burst of growth in IP investment.
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First quarter GDP was pretty good. I’ll only add that there are two more estimates to be released. BEA’s revisions have been pretty substantial in recent years. My guess — and it’s only a guess — is that the 4% growth rate will be revised downward over the next two months.
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National income accounting is not particularly easy or interesting. But those who try to use GDP should know what they’re talking about. Mr. Davidow has sadly failed this test. Continue Reading →
Well, it happens that there’s a country just north of us that had about as bad a winter as the U.S. That’s Canada, where first quarter GDP grew 2.2%. This growth occurred despite a contraction in gross investment (-1.6%) and a huge drawdown in business inventories of -$495 million (Canadian dollars, of course). Somehow, even faced with harsh winter conditions, those intrepid Canadian consumers managed to increase spending by 2.6%. Perhaps Amazon.com and Google shopping are easier to use north of the border. Continue Reading →