Fourth Quarter GDP
GDP growth of 2.9% sounds pretty good. But there is underlying weakness in the economy. I estimate a 60% chance of a recession in 2023. Continue Reading →
Tag Archives: gdp
Third Quarter GDP
There’s a good chance that a lot of the increase in third quarter GDP was caused by U.S. government spending, specifically foreign aid. Continue Reading →
Why US GDP Fell By 4.8 Percent in 2020 Q1
US GDP decreased 4.8 percent in 2020:I. Personal consumption spending fell by 7.78% compared to the previous quarter with spending on services decreasing a whopping 10.63%. Continue Reading →
Don’t Blame Households for First Quarter GDP
The U.S. economy is still sick. It will not be cured until (if and when) the current regulatory onslaught emanating from Washington, D.C. is not just slowed, but rolled back. The U.S. needs business climate change. Continue Reading →
The Mystery of Third Quarter GDP
While subprime vehicle loans contributed to third quarter growth, the total contribution was minor. Far more concerning is the continuing growth of inventories and the apparent burst of growth in IP investment.
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Second Quarter GDP
First quarter GDP was pretty good. I’ll only add that there are two more estimates to be released. BEA’s revisions have been pretty substantial in recent years. My guess — and it’s only a guess — is that the 4% growth rate will be revised downward over the next two months.
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The Invisible Economy is Not the Hidden Economy
National income accounting is not particularly easy or interesting. But those who try to use GDP should know what they’re talking about. Mr. Davidow has sadly failed this test. Continue Reading →
Healthcare Spending and First Quarter GDP
Well, it happens that there’s a country just north of us that had about as bad a winter as the U.S. That’s Canada, where first quarter GDP grew 2.2%. This growth occurred despite a contraction in gross investment (-1.6%) and a huge drawdown in business inventories of -$495 million (Canadian dollars, of course). Somehow, even faced with harsh winter conditions, those intrepid Canadian consumers managed to increase spending by 2.6%. Perhaps Amazon.com and Google shopping are easier to use north of the border. Continue Reading →
What Happened to GDP in the First Quarter
Earlier this year I posted an article stating that I would not use government data until at least after the 2016 election. I’ve now violated that promise several times. But this data makes me suspect that even the Bureau of Economic Analysis is just making up numbers. Continue Reading →
What Really Happened in the First Quarter
The U.S. economy is in for a rough time in 2014. In large part this has been caused by the implementation of Obamacare, the Dodd-Frank financial reform act, and the flood of new regulations emanating from a plethora of U.S. government agencies. I’ll just mention the de facto war on coal being waged by the EPA and the broad use of “disparate impact analysis” in the Department of Labor. Continue Reading →